According to a think tank, if a more positive take on growth figures is to be believed, the UK economy will have surpassed its pre-recession peak.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) points out that the economy grew between 1% and 1.2% in the three months leading up to April. If the 1.2% figure is correct, that will bring the country above the economic strength enjoyed prior to the recession.
Thanks to growth during January to March 2014, the economy was just 0.6% off the peak of 2008.
NIESR are showing some caution though. Growth would have had to have been exceptional to tip the UK above the peak, but according to the think tank, if we don’t make it this month, it’ll certainly happen in May.
Jack Meaning, a research fellow at NIESR said: “The preliminary data we have is that it’s as close as close can get without technically hitting it. We’re already a quarter of the way through May. If you’re assuming it’s going to be 0.1pc below, it could be that we’re far enough through the month that the 0.1pc has already been eroded.”
While this is good news, we’re still lagging behind other countries. Germany and the USA reached this milestone back in 2010, while the NIESR also make it clear we’re unlikely to reach pre-recession GDP levels until 2017.
They also believe growth in consumption and increased business investment will help spur the economy on. Mr Meaning said: “We’re expecting pent-up investment demand to rocket up to 9pc growth this year.
Image by Carlos Murras.