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It’s time for some Optimism

Rocky times seem to have hit the UK economy over recent years and the newspapers have been full of financial woes, but some experts are starting to once again give a positive outlook. Disruptions such as Covid, Brexit, and the failure of supply chains may still be having a negative effect, but overall businesses and property owners can remain confident as we still have the lowest unemployment in decade – and even the smartest financial reporters are confidently saying we are not in a recession that was promised and unlikely to enter one anytime soon.

A leading international bank is suggesting that despite the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine there are many positive signs that suggest perhaps the worst is behind us financially and as such a return to some stability is expected. That does not mean growth or a trend back to the super low interest rates, but surely stability is actually a more healthy state for us all.

Some take out from a recent webinar from a leading expert suggests that;

  • The UK is unlikely to avoid a recession.
  • The employment market is broadly good.
  • Inflation has most likely peaked (end of 2022).
  • Falling energy prices will drive inflation lower.
  • Inflation will come down slowly.
  • The bank base rate will possibly level back out at around 3.5% and then stabilise. 
  • Overall, the outlook is not gloomy, in fact it's quite positive. 

What does this mean for businesses and the mortgage market?

Businesses can start to be a bit more optimistic about the future. Consumer spending increases and a reduction of overhead costs associated with office space rental should all contribute towards improved bottom lines. 

Wages are also likely to rise, which allows families to gain some financial stability by saving more money for larger purchases such as homes. Also mortgage rates, whilst perhaps not returning to the unsustainable lows of the last couple of years, are expected to stay in the low 4%’s this year and perhaps hit mid 3%’s in early 2024.  Whilst we would all love to see the 1%'s and 2%’s again, in truth they were never there for the long term and I think a Fixed Rate mortgage starting with a 3% figure is not only sustainable for the long term, but is very attractive to the buyer.

‍In Conclusion;

Maybe it’s time for some optimism; it certainly can’t hurt to be optimistic can it? We still have the lowest unemployment in decades, wages are rising and energy costs are coming down. Mortgage rates have stabilised and we are already seeing Fixed Rates starting with 3% and we expect a level of stability within the next 12 months. Sure there remain some challenges ahead, but at the end of the tunnel there is definitely light peeking through.

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Rob Starr
CEO of Crunch Mortgages, operated by SEICO
Updated on
May 24, 2023

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